MTNL

In an interesting formation, MTNL has long term and short term support lines meeting at 170 level. One positive thing that happened on Friday was that bulls didn't allow the stock to fall below these levels. Even volume saw a rise which confirms the support at 170 level.

But keep in mind that the overall market is in a down-trend and its very difficult for one stock ot hold its rally when the whole market is falling. If the above mentioned support is maintained, and overall market sentiment remains bearish then our expectation is that MTNL will consolidate for a while.

On the other hand, if market bounces off on Monday then MTNL may start moving up.

Support

161, 155, 150

Resistance

180, 190

 

Overall market movement is very important for MTNL's move. Take a decision considering this factor.

Look at our analysis of NIFTY here

NIFTY for the week of 21-Jan-08

 

NIFTY bounced off an impotrant support of 5675 on friday. This indicates that bulls were ready to retaliate at 5675 level. If, on Monday, bulls again hold this level then NIFTY may retarce back till 5807, and then till 5906. But looking at the volume in the last 2-3 days, this bounce back seems unlikely.

On the other hand, if NIFTY breaks 5675 level, then we may see a fall till 5600. There is a good support present at 5600. But if this support is broken then next support is far below at 5400 levels.

We have been talking about the wedge that formed on the NIFTY over last couple of months and it seems that the wedge has broken from the down-side. This formation has next support at 5200.

Overall we don't have anything bullish about NIFTY other than the fact that NIFTY kept the 5675 level. This is very critical level and if breached will wipe off all past four months gain.

More about NIFTY

As we had mentioned in our last post, a red monday pulled NIFTY back to 5800 levels. This makes us publish the next level of support and resitance for NIFTY. So here we go

Resistance

6000, 6065, 6120

Support

5926, 5835, 5771, 5730

Other things to be noted and important are

1. NIFTY was successfully supported by the 50-day EMA today. If NIFTY closes above 5926 with a green day tomorrow that will signal a trend reversal.
2. The same 50-day EMA line, if breached will take NIFTY down to above mentioned support levels, with 50-day EMA line acting as a resistance.

NOTE - NIFTY has been range-trading for past several months. It reached the bottom of the range yesterday and a reversal from this point may take NIFTY to the upper end of the range which is near 6400-6500 levels.

NIFTY for the week of 14-Jan-2008

Resistance

6250, 6275

NIFTY crossed the 21-day EMA, which was acting as a support for past several days. The 21-day EMA now can act as a resistance. NIFTY closed just below the 21-day EMA on friday. It needs to be seen if NIFTY successfully closes about the 21-day EMA in the comming sessions. A Red monday signals the weakness of NIFTY to cross the 21-day EMA line and can result in bearish signal.

Support

6170, 6150, 6120

The gap in NIFTY on intraday chart strongly supports NIFTY at 6170, where as other two supports are not so strong and should be used with caution.

 

Other observations

In our last week's post, we had mentioned that, on weekly chart, NIFTY is forming a wedge pattern. NIFTY failed to break the wedge in the last week and the result is that this week NIFTY will need more strength to break the wedge. If NIFTY successfuly closes above 6400+ in the coming week then that can signal that NIFTY has gained enough power to break the wedge positively. Understand the importance of this wedge, if broken, it can take NIFTY to 7000+ levels.